Celtics face decision on extending Big Al

July 29, 2007

This promises to be an eventful summer and early fall for the Celtics' Al Jefferson. (Actually, it already has been an eventful summer, given that he almost was traded to Minnesota. Wouldn't you have loved to see the first meeting with Mark Blount?)

Jefferson has been selected as one of what USA Basketball bigwig Jerry Colangelo calls "the young elite" of the NBA to scrimmage against the US national team prior to the start of the Olympic qualifier next month. But there's something else possibly on the horizon - a contract extension.

Jefferson, entering his fourth season, is eligible to sign up to a six-year extension, which would kick in for the start of the 2008-09 season. He already is on the books to earn a little more than $2.48 million this season, which ranks him seventh on the Celtics' pay scale after Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Theo Ratliff, Kendrick Perkins, Brian Scalabrine, and Sebastian Telfair.

The Celtics and Jefferson have until late October to see if they can come to an agreement. If not, Jefferson becomes a restricted free agent at the end of the season. Perkins was in the same situation last year and signed for four years, the first of which is this season, and $16.2 million.

Most teams take care of their valuables with extensions at the earliest opportunity to ward off potential problems in restricted free agency. Jefferson, one could argue, is no worse than the third-best player on the team and you could even make a case that he is the most valuable in terms of league-wide interest. If you asked the 29 other general managers if they could have one Celtic, no strings attached, I'd guess Jefferson might win over Pierce and Allen. Jefferson is still only 22.

The question, as always, will come down to money. Jefferson's agent, Jeff Schwartz, declined to comment on the situation and Danny Ainge wasn't in the mood to talk, either. Where does Jefferson fit salary-wise? Is he deserving of Zach Randolph dollars ($16 million a year for the next three years)?

Could Jefferson, his agent, or the Celtics see him as a soon-to-be impact player along the lines of Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, or Dwight Howard? Those guys all are due to get the max. Howard is in Jefferson's draft class. Other guys in Big Al's shoes from the Class of 2004 include Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Emeka Okafor (the latter of whom is also represented by Schwartz).

So far, the spending habits of the Celtics have been a tad mystifying. They have some apparent allergy to the midlevel exception. Their roster is still loaded with bargain-basement, rookie-scale contracts or similar deals. Yet they lavished $20 million a year on Pierce when there was no one else bidding and no market for him for that kind of money. (The Nets had the same contract situation with Vince Carter, but didn't do the extension until this summer. They got him for four years, not three, and for substantially less guaranteed money.) Allen doesn't come cheap, either. And, presumably, whoever Ratliff brings in a deal - assuming he's moved and not allowed to retire - will earn close to eight figures. That could bring the luxury tax into view.

The alternative is to wait and see - and that's not such a bad scenario for either side. It gives the Celtics another year to observe Jefferson and to make sure they have the Big Al who averaged a double-double and who finished sixth in the voting for Most Improved Player. If he continues along those lines, he will be a valued commodity in restricted free agency, but the Celtics would have the right to match any offer to keep him. It might cost them more, but a team would likely have to have $10 million or so of cap space and target Jefferson. Is there such a team? It's too early to say.

If Jefferson regresses, he probably sacrifices some of what he stood to make. But don't you get the feeling he learned his lesson two years ago and isn't going back? He still has a ways to go on defense and his health is still a question mark; he's missed 47 games in his first three years. There's also the fact that he put up numbers on a bad team whose opponents paid scant attention. In other words, he needs to do it in games that matter.

That's why it might be prudent to wait. The Celtics insist that the days of non-results-oriented basketball are over (finally!). If they can make the playoffs with Jefferson playing a big part, then Big Al can still sign with them and get a contract worth more than the GNP of Prentiss, Miss. If the Celtics continue to struggle, Jefferson will likely remain a valued name.