Patrick O'Bryant just turned 22. He's seven-feet tall. His sometimes maligned work ethic isn't as hopeless as that of, oh, let's say Michael Olowokandi. Just having finished up his second year in the league, the veteran's minimum contract he signed with the Celtics is for significantly less money than the Celtics would have paid Chris Andersen, especially once you account for the luxury tax. Nor does his resume include testing positive for a "drug of abuse," as does Birdman's.
He's a low to medium risk that may yield a low to medium return. He's a slightly more than low risk because the Celtics window to win another championship is small, and Kendrick Perkins' shoulder is a big question mark. Thus, bringing in a 22-year-old kid who has underwhelmed thus far is not really my idea of how to fortify a championship roster.
So what can we expect from the kid?
Who knows.
But here are my three projections.
Joe Barry Carroll actually had a good career (see numbers below). The chances of O'Bryant approaching his numbers are pretty close to nil, especially since JBC was the number 1 pick overall and got major minutes early in his career and O'Bryant probably won't be getting major minutes any time soon. At the same time, if O'Bryant surprises everyone this year and gets some PT, Carroll's numbers aren't so gaudy as to be out of reach, assuming O'Bryant played well for a good ten years.
Then there is everyone's favorite, Michael Olowokandi (see numbers below). Dude played eight years, and never showed aspirations to do much of anything. As noted earlier on this blog, KG was disgusted by the guy. Over his career, Kandi averaged 8.3 rebounds, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks. Divorced from the player and his reputation, these numbers aren't awful. I don't think O'Bryant reaches this level either.
Next comes William Bedford (see numbers below). He played six seasons in the NBA and won 2 rings with the Pistons. He never did much, but he still got the bling. Tons of potential that he never realized. This will be Patrick O'Bryant. I know, I know. Clifford Ray and KG will make a difference. So will Doc. Fine. That's what I'm hoping for, too. But I wouldn't bet my house on it. Instead, I expect O'Bryant to go along for the ride with the Celtics, wherever that ride may lead.
Finally, we have Tito Horford. I won't post his stats, but you can link to them by clicking on his name. He had even more potential than Bedford, because he had heaps and mounds of athletic ability. But he only lasted two seasons, averaging 1.5 points per game and 1.3 rebounds per game. Horford represents the worst-case scenario for O'Bryant.
There you have it. Let me know what you think.
William Bedford (most likely)
Sixth pick overall (1986)
6 seasons
238 games
2 rings
4.1 PPG
2.4 RPG
.416 FG
573 rebounds
109 assists
37 steals
126 blocks
Michael Olowokandi (a stretch)
First pick overall (1998)
8 seasons
500 games
8.3 PPG
6.9 RPG
1.4 BPG
3414 rebounds
327 assists
226 steals
697 blocks
Joe Barry Carroll (extremely unlikely)
First pick overall (1981)
12 seasons
705 games
17.7 PPG
7.7 RPG
1.6 BPG
1.8 APG
1.0 SPG
.474 FG
5405 rebounds
1264 assists
687 steals
1121 blocks
5 comments:
Sure is good to have you back!!!
Or, the Celtics once got another center from Golden State who was considered to be an underachiever and a slacker. He ended up being a pretty good player for the Celtics as I recall. Maybe it comes full circle as Clifford Ray was credited with developing his game and may do the same for O'Bryant also. O'Bryant is still very young and raw and has a lot of potential in the right system and with the right coaching. I don't think he had either at Golden State.
Thanks, FCF
Good to be back!
That is a bold comparison.
One thing I like about it is that Parish was 23 in his rookie year, and O'Bryant is only 22.
I hope you are right.
One counterpoint is that by the time Parish was traded to Boston, he had already put up some interesting numbers.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parisro01.html
9 & 7, 12 & 8, 17 & 12, and 17 & 11.
So Parish was a little bit ahead of the game by the time he came to beantown.
He also started 78 games in his first year with Boston, something to be contrasted with however many O'Bryant starts.
Parrish was also one of the best rebounders in college basketball history even though he played small school.
Being william bedford isn't the end of the world. Bedford came in off the bench and contributed for two world championship teams.
O'Bryant may reach Kandi's output.
Beyond that, he's gonna have to work his tail off.
I find the cult-of-Clifford-Ray to be an ever more disturbing trend in Celtics analysis. People think that he's some mystic guru who can turn bad players into good ones, when in fact, he's simply helped guide some already very talented and motivated players to reach their potential, something that probalby could have and would have happened without him. O'Bryant is a stiff and no amount of coaching is going to make him turn into Moses Malone. I applaud the author's original post where he set forth some very realistic goals and expectation for this unfortunate signing.
Post a Comment