12.02.2008

The Window


When the Boston Celtics acquired Kevin Garnett during the summer of 2007, pundits spent a lot of time talking about windows. The Celtics had just traded away ten to fifteen years of double-doubles in Al Jefferson for a two-year run at one championship, is what many pundits said.

Well, after one year, the Celtics have one title under their belts and are working on number two. With the emergence of Rajon Rondo and the solid play of Kendrick Perkins in the paint, the pundits initial forecast of a two-year window now looks a bit short-sighted.

Rajon Rondo is 22, and is already considered one of the best young point guards in the NBA. Even for those who disagree on this point, no one will doubt his growing impact on the Celtics. Not only does he make them go, he has demonstrated the ability to single-handedly turn games around.

Compared to Rondo, Kendrick Perkins is an old man at 24, but still four years shy of when the average NBA big man hits his stride. While his shoulder continues to be a source of concern for Celtics fans everywhere, Perkins is already one of the better post-defenders in the NBA, young or old. Earlier in the season he went on a shot-blocking binge, rejecting 15 shots in three games. His next five games received less attention, yet even in those contests he blocked seven shots in less than 25 minutes per game.

Next you have 21-year-old Bill Walker, 23-year-old JR Giddens, and 22-year-old Patrick O'Bryant. The barometer for these three is not whether they become great players. If any one of them achieves "very goodness," that might be sufficient, as the real question is whether they can consistently contribute, provide some youthful energy, and keep the hunger alive for the Big 3.

The best way to keep the hunger alive is by making the next championship a realistic possibility. This not only keeps the Big 3 motivated while they are under contract, but makes it more likely that they will renew their contracts for an additional year in hopes of padding their resumes for the Hall.

This team is feeling more and more like the 1970s Celtics, and their run lasted exactly four seasons. But if Rondo were to reach elite status and Giddens, Walker, O'Bryant, or Perkins were somehow to became a force at both ends of the court, we're not only talking about opening the window of opportunity a little wider, but all of a sudden Ainge has several marketable pieces to possibly make a move for another impact player.

So while their is implausible talk of a 10-year run in LA, I think it is more realistic to believe the Celtics will be playing championship-level basketball for another three years, at which time Kobe will be past his prime and LeBron will be just reaching his, which should effectively transition the balance of power away from both the Purple and the Green.

Sure, there are other variables, health for starters. KG's ticker for another. How long will the fire burn? Then you have Ray and Paul's contracts, and the age of all three stars. Let's not worry about any of that until we have to. For now, let's just be thankful that the window of opportunity includes the very real possibility of adding more hardware to the trophy case.

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