Rotation with MinutesAverage Minutes Per Game for Top Four Reserves
Kevin Garnett 28 Rasheed Wallace 12 BBD 8
Kendrick Perkins 28 Rasheed Wallace 12 BBD 8
Paul Pierce 32 Marquis Daniels 9 Sheed 4 BBD 3
Ray Allen 30 Marquis Daniels 18
Rajon Rondo 36 Eddie House 12
Sheed 28Celtics Nation spends a lot of time worrying about who Danny will get to play the role of the fourth big. Do we need one? Well, of course we do. The tougher question is determining what role he will play.
Eddie 16
Marquis 28
BBD 19
Now if the daily clamor on Planet Green stems from the need to insure against possible injuries to KG, Perk, and Sheed, then by all means, I get it: we need a talented fourth big capable of contributing and playing a lot of minutes in an expanded role.
But say we stay relatively healthy during the 2009-10 campaign. I mean, Bill Walton played over 100 games for the Celtics in 1985-86 (pre-season, regular season, and playoffs combined), after missing three-and-a-half-seasons due to injuries earlier in his career. So it is entirely possible that KG, Perk, and Sheed will stay healthy this year, especially since none of them has the history of injuries that Mr. Walton did.
So if concerns about insurance fall to the back-burner, exactly what kind of role will this back-up big play?
The above chart might give us some idea. Admittedly, the chart is not entirely realistic. KG, if healthy, will not play 28 minutes or less (unless we bring him off the bench, but I'll pontificate about that idea in a later post). Nor will Sheed be limited to 28 minutes, Ray Allen limited to 30 minutes, or Paul Pierce limited to 32 minutes. We're talking about KC Jones, er, I mean Doc Rivers, as the coach.
But keep in mind, the more realistic we make the numbers above, the smaller the role for the fourth big. Right now I've got BBD playing a few minutes at the power 3. You take those minutes away, and BBD goes from averaging 19 MPG to 16. You increase the minutes for KG and Sheed? BBD is likely to play even less.
You see where I'm headed.
I hope we re-sign BBD. But if we don't, and we get someone like Yi Jianlian in return, it will be because Danny can't justify paying BBD $4m to $5m per year for 15 minutes of playing time . . . or less.
4 comments:
A 4th big is mostly needed for insurance in case of an injury. I am hoping that Doc can keep minutes down during the season so they won't be worn out by playoff time, too.
A 4th Big is definitely needed.
Instead of looking at minutes per game (which can be foiled by foul trouble, ejections, and injuries), it's more realistic to look at minutes per season. At the 4/5 spots over the course of 82 games, there are a total of 7872 minutes throughout the season. For the past 2 seasons, KG has averaged 2065 minutes per season, Perk has averaged 2082.5 minutes per season, and Wallace has averaged 2234.5 minutes per season. That adds up to 6382 minutes per season for all 3--leaving a whooping 1490 minutes left over at the 4/5 spots for the 4th big (assuming he can play both positions), or roughly 18 minutes per game. There's plenty of minutes for Glen Davis and it'd be prudent and a good use of money to resign him to a contract at his fair market value because he's young, improving, and there's a definite role and need for him in our lineup. Something like 4 years, 18 million sounds fair to me...
Good job, anon. I like your analysis. Still, I can't imagine 18 MPG would excite BBD all that much.
Hey FCF, yeah, I still say insurance and what's leftover. Of course, anon points out over a course of a season, what's left over is still quite a bit. I guess BBD won't have Leon to fight with over those minutes.
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