The Playoffs Loom

April 14, 1985

Section: SPORTS

PLAYING OFF POSSIBILITIES CELTICS-LAKERS NOT FINALIZED; EXPECT SURPRISES TO SURFACE

The interminable NBA regular season groans to a close this afternoon, and now there are two months of playoffs ahead. The hoop world is waiting for another Celtics-Lakers matchup, but a lot of Cavaliers, Suns, Spurs and Bullets have to be dismissed before the showcase series is wheeled to center stage.



Pro hoop junkies who have bled for 5 1/2 months are now joined by discriminating sports fans who turn to the NBA only during the playoffs. Then, when the kids are finally out of school and it's truly hot outside, a third (massive) tier of American sports fans will tune into the finals and discover that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is balding and Larry Bird wipes the bottoms of his shoes with his hands.

Mr. Middle America, who withholds his attention until Magic Johnson and Larry Bird joust, should beware. Something strange usually happens early in this postseason chase. It's easy to sit here now and say that the Lakers, Celtics, Sixers and Bucks are the only teams capable of winning the title, but LA's loss to Houston in 1981, Boston's defeat in Milwaukee in 1983 and Philadelphia's first-round stumble versus New Jersey last year should serve as fair warning to those who are counting on Boston-LA.

The playoffs start Wednesday and include 16 of the NBA's 23 teams. That's right, 16 of 23. In other words, it took 5 1/2 months and 943 games to determine that the Pacers, Knicks, Hawks, Warriors, Kings, Clippers and SuperSonics are not going to win the NBA championship this spring.

Here's a breakdown on the semi-sweet 16:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The Celtics should make it to the Eastern final. Boston opens with Cleveland, which amounts to a first-round bye for the Celtics. OK, the Cavs beat Philly four of six and have won 56 percent of their games since a 2-19 start, but they have also lost 15 straight to Boston since 1983 and 19 in a row at the Garden.

In Round 2, the Celtics draw the winner of Detroit-New Jersey. The Pistons give Boston trouble (the Nets don't), but the Celtics' frontcourt and the home-court advantage should wear down Detroit.

The other Eastern bracket is intriguing. Everybody figures Philadelphia and Milwaukee will meet in the Eastern semis, but the Sixers and Bucks have to get past Washington and Chicago. Washington may have Jeff Ruland (whose shoulder reportedly was injected with pain-killer last week) back for the playoffs, and the Bulls were a respectable 3-3 with the Bucks this year.

A Philadelphia-Milwaukee semifinal would be interesting. Injuries, morale problems and a lack of height (the Sixers are the league's shortest team) have made Philadelphia vulnerable. The Sixers are more talented than Milwaukee, but this will be the test of a team's ability to "turn it on" when it counts - do the Sixers still want to do the hard work it takes to regain the crown? If the Sixers aren't prepared, they could be embarrassed by Don Nelson's tribe. The Bucks are the tightest machine in the league - playing to the maximum of their talent - but they will be stopped somewhere along the line. You don't beat the Sixers, Celtics and Lakers in consecutive seven-game series with Alton Lister as your starting center.

It looks like Boston versus Philadelphia or Milwaukee in the Eastern final. The Celtics are 3-3 with the Sixers and 1-4 against the Bucks. Milwaukee has played Boston very well this year, but the Sixers still pose more of a threat to the Celtics. The two haven't met in the playoffs since 1982.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The problem here is finding competition for the Lakers. Unless somebody breaks a leg, LA may not break a sweat getting to its fifth final in six seasons. The Lakers are en route to the league field-goal percentage record (smashing the .532 mark they set last year) and are at the top of their game as they fly into the postseason. They are also healthier than Boston or Philadelphia.

The Lakers will vaporize the setting Suns in the first round. Playing without Walter Davis, Phoenix staggered to the finish line but stayed ahead of the Sonics (Seattle would not be denied in its quest for the draft lottery).

LA could draw Dallas, Portland, San Antonio or Utah in Round 2. Portland is a nice dark horse in the Western Conference. The Blazers had an awful year but finished strong (despite being blown out at Utah Thursday) and have enough talent to play with the big boys. They've been playoff flops since winning the title in 1977, but they could upset Dallas if they draw the Mavs in the first round.

Denver and Houston, the cream of the other Western bracket, should eliminate Utah and/or San Antonio swiftly. If Portland then plays either Denver or Houston, the Blazers have a chance. The Nuggets are tough at home, but they'll fold when they leave the high altitude. Houston is still very weak in the backcourt, and John Lucas is starting to get more minutes. The Rockets have enough frontcourt talent to make it to the Western final.

LA will beat Denver, Houston or Portland to make it to the conference final. The Lakers sent the Nuggets a message last week (148-119 in the Forum) and own the Rockets at the Summit. Neither team has an antidote for Magic Johnson. Portland remains an interesting possibility, but the Blazers might get the Lakers in Round 2.

Eastern elitists will be surprised to learn that the Lakers are convinced they are the best team in basketball. It is the same feeling LA had going into the 1983 final when the "Great Eight" swept Philly in four.