11.29.2007

Was Jesus Really in a Slump?

Ray Allen probably leads the league in walk-off home runs, and the Celtics are 12-2.


So one might ask, what's the big deal if he's had a few off games?


And since Allen is only shooting .446 from the field over his career, it might be worth asking whether Jesus was really in a slump at all?


Before last night's 8-14 effort (yay!!! a game where he made more shots than he missed), Jesus was shooting .425, or two made field goals worse out of every hundred shots than his career average.


And for this I've been droning on and on about a slump?


Keep in mind that Shuttlesworth was shooting .575 after 5 games. Also keep in mind that during the eight games that followed, Jesus shot 35%. This is when I became concerned.


During the summer of 1985, the Celtics acquired little known Jerry Sichting for a bottle of pop and a bag of chips.


How did he do?


Well, let's just say, not too bad.


In a little under twenty minutes a night, Sichting scored 6.5 points per game on a guady .570 from the field and .924 from the line. So when Ray Allen started knocking down jumpers at a similar clip in the first 5 games of this season, most of us felt it was reasonable to expect such proficiency to continue.

Yet, as we all know, Jesus' touch went in the tank.

The numbers from the 8-game drought were Bird-like, that is, the Larry Bird playing with a back so sore he could barely stand-up straight:

10-25
4-15
5-15
7-18
5-15
4-14
6-18
7-17

Moreover, the slump started in game 5, when Doc played him the entire 48 minutes. For the season, the 32-year-old Allen is averaging around 40 minutes per game. As a Celtics fan and blogger I think we owe it to ourselves to ask whether there is a connection between declining performance and increasing minutes.

Ray Allen is a key piece to the championship hopes of the Boston Celtics. In fact, I would contend he is the key piece.

A hot and healthy Jesus can take over games when Paul Pierce is either having an off night or drawing double teams that include the opponent's best defender. Sure, Jesus can fill up a box score in other ways when he's having an off night. This is part of what makes him so valuable.

But the Cs are a different team when he's firing from both holsters, and the difference is between grinding out wins where the big three play significant minutes and winning more comfortably, where the big three end the game on the bench, resting for their next encounter.

So let's keep an eye on old #20, and hope that we see more hot streaks than cold ones.


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