Poseyless Celtics: How are they Doing from Range?

Every Celtics fan remembers the threes James Posey hit in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, just as every Celtics fan remembers the threes he and Eddie House in Game 6. The threes in Game 4 got us back into the game and then helped secure the win, while the threes in quarter two of game 6 started the Celtics on their way to an historic win.

Most pundits predicted the Celtics would sorely miss Posey this year, and, over time, I'm sure they will (man hugs aside). But how are the Celtics doing from range compared to last year? Has there been a wild decline in three attempts or accuracy?

Last year the Celtics averaged just a smidgen more than 19 three-tries per game, while converting 7.2 of them, for a percentage of .378. This year the Celtics are attempting only 15.5 threes per game, while making 5.3 of them, for a percentage of .341. Not only is our three-point field goal percentage worse than last year, then, the number of threes we take has declined by 19% while the number of threes we make has declined by 26%.

But those numbers improve dramatically if you focus on the last nine games. During the winning streak, the Celtics have gone 49-125 from three, for a percentage of .392. During the win streak, then, we are averaging only 13.8 three-tries per game while making 5.4 of them.

One conclusion might be that we are getting more judicious and intelligent about the shots we take from range. There is no doubt some truth to that conclusion. However, the winning streak also skews those numbers. In the two games immediately preceding the win streak, the Celtics hoisted up 25 threes against Denver, making 10, and 24 threes against Atlanta, making 5.

What did those two games have in common?

The Celtics trailed at least part of the time by large margins, increasing the need to shoot threes.

So it is hard to fully separate the chicken from the egg. Are we winning more comfortably because we're using the three more judiciously or are we judicious in shooting threes because we are winning more comfortably?

A little of both, but like a runner who adjusts his running style due to an injury, the Celtics are adjusting their style to play to their strengths.