Finals Predictions: An Accounting Vol. I

Before the playoffs began, I picked the Celtics to defeat the Lakers in six games. The feeling then was Boston had an easier road to the Finals. But the Celtics needed 20 games to advance, which is five more than their opponent had to play. The Lakers have the best player, a coach with a lot of bling and a better bench, so they must be considered the favorite.

Lakers in six.

--Chicago Sun Times

I am actually rooting for Kevin Garnett. I think he's a great player. But I would say Lakers in six. They look like the best team in the NBA already.

--Barack Obama

But after opening the season 26-3 (.896), Boston slowed down a bit, going 40-13 (.755) down the stretch. Flip that script for the Lakers, who were 30-16 (.652) when Pau Gasol joined the team on February 3, and 23-5 (.821) in the 28 of the final 36 games that Gasol was in the Lakers lineup for. In the playoffs, the Celtics have taken seven, seven and six games to dispatch of their opponents, while the Lakers have gone four, six and five games to beat their three Western Conference foes.

LAKERS IN 6

--California Daily News

No one is advocating a return to the Showtime days of Magic Johnson, but it would clearly be to the Lakers' advantage if they scored at least in the 90s. A lower-scoring game would favor the Celtics and would probably also mean Bryant isn't shooting many free throws again. You would have to imagine the league's MVP will find a way to assert himself and be the difference in the two teams.

Lakers in 6.

--Daytona News-Journal

X-factor I: If 22-year-old guard Rajón Rondo falters in prime time, the Celtics could be leaning on 38-year-old Sam Cassell to provide major playing time. Cassell won titles his first two years in Houston and is a big-game player, but the Celtics need decent performances from Rondo.

X-factor II:Derek Fisher won three rings with the Lakers, but after leaving for three years, he returned this season and has been a steady influence, not only on Bryant, but also on the young role players. As a leader, Fisher has been an excellent complement to Bryant, particularly in the postseason.

X-factor III: There is little doubt that the Lakers' role players of Vladimir Radmanovic, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton and Jordan Farmar have been more consistent than the Celtics' youthful players in the playoffs. Another top effort by the bench would be a major boost for Bryant.

X-factor IV: The Celtics' Kevin Garnett is in his first Finals and he wants to win just as badly as Bryant does.

Lakers in 6.

--Fort Worth Star-Telegram

FORWARDS

Lamar Odom's versatility and Vladimir Radmanovic's shooting range can cause matchup issues, particularly in Phil Jackson's triangle offense, but the strength of the Celtics is in their forward combination of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, who have averaged 40.1 points in the postseason. Advantage: Celtics

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GUARDS

Ray Allen seemed to be coming out of his postseason shooting slump in the last two games against the Pistons, and Rajon Rondo gives the Celtics their most reliable dribble penetration. But Rondo, in just his second season, is going against veteran Derek Fisher. Kobe Bryant, the regular-season league MVP, has been even better in the playoffs.

Advantage: Lakers

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CENTER

As crucial as the acquisition of Pau Gasol was at the time, it has become even more valuable with Andrew Bynum unable to come back from his knee injury. Beaumont Ozen product Kendrick Perkins will offer the Celtics a physical, intense defender, but he has been inconsistent in the postseason.

Advantage: Lakers

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BENCH

The Celtics' postseason inconsistency can be traced to their bench, where neither Sam Cassell nor Eddie House has nailed down the backup point guard spot. James Posey has provided a big-play and defensive lift. The so-called "bench mob" of Sasha Vujacic, Ronny Turiaf, Luke Walton and Jordan Farmar has helped key the Lakers' postseason run.

Advantage: Lakers

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COACH

A former coach of the year, Doc Rivers led the Celtics to 66 wins this season. Phil Jackson is tied with Red Auerbach with nine NBA championships. For now.

Advantage: Lakers

...


Lakers in six.

--Houston Chronicle