1.10.2009

Revising the Win Projections

I started the season predicting 59 wins, but thought it might be necessary for an upward revision after the 27-2 start. I never made that revision, which is a good thing.

Now it's time for a downward revision.

The Celtics have 43 games left, 21 at home and 22 on the road.

16-5 at home and 11-11 on the road would give them 27 more wins for a grand total of 56 regular season wins. Personally, I don't see the green playing .500 ball over the rest of their road games. If we subtract a couple of wins and add a couple of losses, that would give them a total of 25 wins the rest of the way, or a final record of 54-28.

That sounds about right.

Only six more wins than Tim Cowlishaw's outrageous prediction of 48 wins last year. The kind of ball the Celtics are playing right now must be what Cowlishaw had in mind. The question is where would 54 wins put them in the East? My guess is that it would be good enough to play one round of playoffs at home.

If we drew anyone but Detroit in the second round, I'm not sure we get past them.

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